Trend of NZers migrating to AU is cyclical - expert

Trend of NZers migrating to AU is cyclical - expert

While New Zealanders are not crossing the Tasman for work as much as they used to, the trend will change as the Australian economy picks up, a University of Canterbury (UC) social science lecturer says. New Zealand's monthly inbound migration rose to a four-year high last month as more New Zealanders stayed at home amid the dwindling attraction of Australia's slowing economy, according to the latest Statistics New Zealand figures. Associate Professor Lyndon Fraser says trans-Tasman migration patterns are cyclical, circular and increasingly permanent. The historical pattern has always been a boom and bust one. Whenever economic conditions are better there, we’ve seen an increase in flows of Kiwis across the ditch. Conversely, we’ve experienced larger numbers of returns when things get tough in Australia. Because the flows are often circular, I’d predict that we’ll see returnees head back once the Australian economy picks up and they’ll be joined by many others seeking new lives abroad or joining family or friends. What we are inclined to forget is that Kiwis have important connections to whanau and mates in Australia. Those networks are the key conduit through which people move. We rely on them for accommodation, jobs and support for various periods. And those networks will be feeding back information, and encouraging or discouraging future moves depending on local opportunities. I think we have to factor the Christchurch rebuild into this equation. That flight has largely run its course and relatively large numbers are being drawn here to the city. Once again, we shouldn’t overstate the significance of the figures. They just match New Zealand’s long-term boom and bust trend. There was a dramatic change in 1967. From this point onwards far more Kiwis migrated to Australia than vice versa. Demographers give several reasons for this trend. First, New Zealand‘s economy weakened. In the late 1960s, New Zealand faced its first major post-war recession. It suffered from high unemployment, rapid inflation and the devaluation of the New Zealand pound against the pound sterling. Second, the rapid expansion of commercial air travel after 1960 made trans-Tasman flights a more affordable option for larger numbers of people. A third contributing factor saw an emerging trend for New Zealand baby boomers to go on their OE as young adults. Australia, for some, was the first step on a longer journey. It required little preparation and few savings. It’s not just about money and living standards. My colleague Dr Rosemary Baird and I are publishing a piece which argues that personal relationships are actually fundamental to the trans-Tasman migration systems,’’ Professor Fraser says.




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